Lately, many new Android phones have been released or have been announced and it seems like an optimal time to make a prediction about trends in the smartphone market.

Based on information as of Q2, 2009 which will still be largely accurate (except for the addition of Palm's WebOS), the order is something like:

1. Symbian


2. Blackberry


3. iPhone


4. Windows Mobile


5. Android

Now, I'm going to discount and ignore Symbian, purely because it is so popular because it is sold on a tonne of Nokia phones, from mid-range up, and barely used for it's smartphone capability. Nor does it have extensive touch support. In fact, Nokia's touch strategy seems to be centred on the relatively new Maemo platform. Maemo won't have the device coverage to gain considerable market share.

Looking down the list, we notice Blackberry, which is arguably a top messaging system but second rate for media and gaming. It is unquestionably popular and suited for business types and teenagers. I predict this will stay popular.

Apple's iPhone OS was revolutionary when it was first announced a couple of years ago and it does have over 100,000 applications. However, it has lost the advantage, still lacks true multitasking (only allowing for background push notifications) and the iPhone hardware is beginning to look dated. Plus, there are only two handsets you can purchase, and neither has a keyboard. Consumers like choice.

Windows Mobile 6.5 was recently released, containing some much overdue features to facilitate easier stylus-free use. However, it still sucks as an operating system and the applications are still not there. HTC and other vendors remain committed to the platform because of their extensive work customising it. It's still a dying dinosaur.

Android has been announced on tens of devices and many of these are now making their way to market. As the platform matures, new features keep getting added - with the release of the Motorola Droid recently, multitouch and free turn-by-turn navigation (courtesy of Google) made their début. As it propagates onto more and more handsets, the draw of such a large market will naturally attract more developers. Likewise, the confusing and frustrating process developers have to endure to get their applications approved for the iTunes store will push more developers to other platforms.

My prediction for smartphone market share at this time next year:

1. (Symbian)


2. Blackberry


3. Android


4. iPhone


5. Windows Mobile


6. WebOS

With Android getting much closer to Blackberry in percentage terms. We'll see Palm's WebOS making an entry too.